How far does the KSU secondary have to go?
By Cole Manbeck
Kansas State had four players selected to the preseason All-Big 12 First-Team Defense in July, tying Oklahoma for the most individuals selected on the defensive side of the ball. So there’s plenty of reason for optimism heading into the 2016 season. There’s also reason for pessimism due to the struggles of the Wildcats’ secondary in 2015 – one of the worst statistical seasons K-State has had at defending the pass during Bill Snyder’s 24 seasons at K-State.
The Wildcats ranked 113th in the country in pass efficiency defense with a 152 rating while allowing opponents to complete nearly 65 percent of their passes, ranking 118th out of 128 FBS teams. From 2009-14, K-State’s average pass efficiency rating was 127.
K-State allowed 8.3 yards per pass attempt, ranking 112th nationally and next-to-last in the Big 12. From 2009-14, K-State yielded an average of 7 yards per pass attempt. In the three seasons prior to 2015, the Wildcats ranked in the top three in the conference in yards per pass attempt allowed.
Taking it a step farther, I went through the Snyder era dating back to 1989. The 8.3 yards per pass attempt is the second-most K-State has allowed in the Hall-of-Famer’s 24 seasons in Manhattan. Only the 1989 squad, Snyder’s first team at K-State, allowed more (9.1 yards per attempt). The 152 pass defense efficiency rating is the worst of any Snyder-coached team dating back to at least 1991 (I was unable to locate pass efficiency defense for the 1989-90 seasons).
K-State pass defense in 2015. K-State’s national ranking is in parentheses next to the statistic. The following stats for 2015 do not include K-State’s season-opening contest against South Dakota.
| Season | Pass Efficiency | Yards Per Pass Allowed | Opponent Completion % |
| 2015 | 152 (No. 113) | 8.3 (No. 112) | 65 (No. 118) |
K-State’s pass defense in six seasons prior to 2015
| Season | Pass Efficiency | Yards Per Pass Allowed | Opponent Completion % |
| 2014 | 129 (No. 64) | 6.9 (No. 46) | 62 |
| 2013 | 114 (No. 15) | 6.3 (No. 15) | 61 |
| 2012 | 128 (No. 46) | 6.9 (No. 46) | 62 |
| 2011 | 138 (No. 80) | 7.3 (No. 78) | 63 |
| 2010 | 127 (No. 53) | 7.0 (No. 52) | 55 |
| 2009 | 123 (No. 68) | 7.6 (No. 80) | 59 |
| Average | 127 | 7.0 | 60 |
Out of the struggles noted above, perhaps the most important statistic attributed to the lack of success has yet to be mentioned – a lack of turnovers forced. The Wildcats recorded just five interceptions – with only one coming from a defensive back – in all of 2015. Only two K-State teams since 1954 have picked off their opponents five times or less in a season.
K-State intercepted 1.2 percent of its opponents’ passing attempts. Only six teams in the FBS had a lower interception rate last season. The 1.2 percent interception rate is the lowest a Snyder team has had since 1997 (which admittedly was a very good defense) and is the third-worst interception rate K-State has recorded in Snyder’s 24 seasons.
K-State forced 1.2 turnovers per game, ranking 9th in the Big 12 and 105th nationally. The 16 turnovers forced overall were the fewest takeaways K-State has had in the Snyder-era since at least 1991 (I was unable to locate the 1990 and 1989 overall turnover numbers). As a result, K-State finished with a negative-three turnover margin in 2015.
K-State turnovers forced in 2015
| Season | Interceptions | Interception % | Total Turnovers Forced | Turnover Margin |
| 2015 | 5 | 1.2% | 16 | Negative 3 |
K-State turnovers forced from 2009-14
| Season | Interceptions | Interception % | Total Turnovers Forced | Turnover Margin |
| 2014 | 16 | 3.8% | 21 | Plus 8 |
| 2013 | 17 | 3.7% | 25 | Even |
| 2012 | 18 | 4.0% | 31 | Plus 19 |
| 2011 | 18 | 3.5% | 27 | Plus 11 |
| 2010 | 13 | 3.6% | 22 | Plus 4 |
| 2009 | 13 | 2.9% | 25 | Plus 7 |
| Average | 16 | 3.6% | 25 | Plus 8 |
*If you would like to see K-State’s defensive stats from 1989-05 to see how it stacked up in terms of pass defense and turnovers compared to the 2015 defense, please go to the end of this blog, where all of that is charted).*
I assure you I didn’t enjoy compiling those numbers or typing this and I’m ready to move on to the positive, as I’m sure you are as well (if the negative numbers didn’t drive you away already).
There’s reason to believe that last season’s turnover rate was an anomaly. In Snyder’s previous six seasons since he returned to the sidelines in 2009, K-State averaged 16 interceptions per season, a 3.6 percent interception rate on passes attempted and forced an average of 25 turnovers overall. The result was an average turnover margin of plus-eight. If you compare that average to the 2015 season, that’s a turnover difference of 11. And that’s significant when you look at three games K-State lost by 7 points or less in 2015 (at Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor), where one turnover could have made the difference.
K-State’s defensive scheme keeps the ball in front of them and at times, the cushion K-State corners give to opposing receivers can be frustrating to watch. But as the numbers indicate, the style of play Tom Hayes coaches has worked for the most part (except for last season, obviously).
The struggles of the 2015 pass defense can largely be attributed to the season-ending injury to All-Big 12 safety Dante Barnett. That seems like a lot to attribute to the absence of one guy. But without Barnett, the Wildcats became extremely young at safety, relying on freshmen Sean Newlan and Kendall Adams as well as senior Nate Jackson, who wasn’t a prototypical safety. K-State lost the foundation to their defense when Barnett went down, and as a result, the Wildcats’ bend-don’t-break style not only broke, it crumbled.
This is a large part of the reason why there’s hope in 2016. Barnett, who has seven career interceptions, is back. He is a guy everyone on the defense trusts, and his leadership, coupled with his play on the field, should provide a significant lift to the secondary and enable the Wildcats to take more risks, thus creating more turnovers.
Duke Shelley, who looks well on his way to being a future All-Big 12 caliber player, gained valuable experience against some of the country’s best receivers as a true freshman last year and held his own. Adams and Newlan struggled at times last season, but K-State must hope they’ve grown from the in-game experience and one of them can help anchor the other safety spot next to Barnett. Donnie Starks started all 13 games at the nickel position and returns for his senior year.
The valuable on-field experience for the young guys, along with the return of Barnett and an infusion of talent at the other corner spot with sophomore junior college transfer D.J. Reed and California transfer Cedric Dozier, should lead to drastic improvement for the Wildcats’ secondary.
One thing that should also help out the secondary is a solid pass rush, something K-State proved to be very good at last season. The Wildcats had a sack rate of 7.7 percent last season, ranking 24th-best in the country and fourth in the Big 12. Sack rate indicates the percentage of times a team sacks the quarterback when they drop back to pass. According to Bill Connelly’s advanced stats at SB Nation, K-State ranked fifth in passing-downs sack rate. In other words, in situations where the opponent is expected to pass (i.e. third-and-long), K-State’s defense got after the quarterback at a very successful clip.
Jordan Willis returns for his senior season to anchor one of the defensive end spots. Only nine other players in college football who return in 2016 had more sacks than K-State’s 6-foot-5, 260-pounder last season.
Despite the struggles of 2015, I expect K-State’s secondary to bounce back this season and prove that last season was more of a fluke than the norm.
Stay tuned for a blog later this week breaking down K-State’s run defense and its front-seven, which should be a strong unit this season.
K-State turnovers forced from 1989-05 (Snyder’s first tenure)
| Season | Interceptions | Interception % | Total Turnovers Forced | Turnover Margin |
| 2005 | 8 | 2.1% | 22 | Negative 6 |
| 2004 | 10 | 3.5% | 19 | Negative 5 |
| 2003 | 20 | 3.6% | 29 | Negative 1 |
| 2002 | 20 | 4.5% | 33 | Plus 9 |
| 2001 | 18 | 5.0% | 25 | Plus 2 |
| 2000 | 20 | 4.2% | 29 | Plus 6 |
| 1999 | 21 | 5.6% | 38 | Plus 17 |
| 1998 | 16 | 3.7% | 33 | Plus 14 |
| 1997 | 5 | 1.1% | 19 | Even |
| 1996 | 13 | 2.6% | 21 | Plus 7 |
| 1995 | 13 | 3.2% | 20 | Negative 2 |
| 1994 | 12 | 2.5% | N/A | N/A |
| 1993 | 12 | 2.5% | 23 | Plus 2 |
| 1992 | 21 | 4.0% | 29 | Plus 7 |
| 1991 | 12 | 2.5% | 25 | Negative 3 |
| 1990 | 19 | 3.8% | N/A | N/A |
| 1989 | 7 | 1.1% | N/A | N/A |
| Average | 14.5 | 3.3% | N/A | N/A |
K-State Pass Efficiency Defense from 1989-05
| Season | Yards Per Pass Attempt | Pass Efficiency |
| 2005 | 6.8 | 124.0 |
| 2004 | 7.7 | 133.4 |
| 2003 | 5.9 | 104.4 (No. 12) |
| 2002 | 5.6 | 91.7 (No. 3) |
| 2001 | 6.0 | 92.0 (No. 4) |
| 2000 | 5.6 | 94.8 (No. 6) |
| 1999 | 4.3 | 65.7 (No. 1) |
| 1998 | 6.3 | 101.2 (No. 8) |
| 1997 | 5.8 | 92.0 (No. 5) |
| 1996 | 5.1 | 86.0 (No. 4) |
| 1995 | 5.6 | 99.0 (No. 13) |
| 1994 | 5.7 | 94.3 (No. 7) |
| 1993 | 6.7 | 112.0 (No. 30) |
| 1992 | 6.5 | 105.4 (No. 28) |
| 1991 | 6.9 | 115.7 (No. 47) |
| 1990 | 6.8 | N/A |
| 1989 | 9.1 | N/A |
| Average | 6.3 | N/A |
