Blog: Auburn Hayes’ Toughest Test Yet

September 15, 2014 johnkurtz

Auburn’s Offense vs. K-State’s Defense

By Cole Manbeck

*This is the first of two blogs previewing Kansas State’s matchup vs. Auburn. The second blog will focus on K-State’s offense vs. Auburn’s defense*

Kansas State’s defense has been good against the run since Tom Hayes joined the coaching staff. Come Thursday night, the veteran defensive coordinator will arguably face his most difficult challenge since arriving in Manhattan in 2011.

K-State’s defense against the run during the Tom Hayes era

Year	Yards per game	Yards per rush	National rank
2011	131	4.0	37
2012	126	3.8	20
2013	139	3.2	27
2014	87	3.0	20

Auburn led the country in rushing last season, averaging 328 yards per game on the ground and 6.3 yards per rush. Tre Mason led the ground attack with 1,816 yards and 5.7 yards per carry. He’s now gone, but the Tigers, who are averaging 330 rushing yards per game and 6.7 yards per rush in their first two games this season, haven’t skipped a beat.

Nick Marshall, Auburn’s senior quarterback, was second on the team with 1,068 rushing yards in 2013 while averaging 6.2 yards a rush. Marshall, who has 122 yards rushing on 19 carries this season, is joined in the backfield by two senior running backs in Cameron Artis-Payne and Corey Grant, both of whom weigh more than 200 pounds. Payne, who ran for 610 yards and 6.7 yards per carry last season, currently leads the Tigers with 289 yards and 6.9 yards per tote. Grant, who ran for 647 yards and averaged 9.8 yards per rush last season, has rushed for 176 yards and 8.8 yards per rush through two games in 2014.

The biggest key for the Wildcats’ defense is finding a way to get Auburn in a few third-and-long situations. Through two games, the Tigers lead the country with a 68-percent success rate on third down (19 of 28). The next closest team is 64 percent. They’re so successful on third down because they are often in third-and-short situations. It will be key for K-State, which is holding opposing offenses to just a 33-percent success rate on third down this season, to force Auburn into some obvious passing situations. And if they can do that, the Wildcats will need to spy Marshall with someone like linebacker Dakorey Johnson to try to prevent the quarterback scramble.

So the question is, can K-State contain the Tigers’ potent run game and force them into some third and longs? Let’s look at four games where the Wildcats have faced somewhat similar offenses during the Hayes era. Let’s start with the Fiesta Bowl against Oregon in 2012:

The Ducks ranked third in the country with 315 rushing yards per game and averaged 6 yards per rush in 2012. K-State held them to 219 yards rushing on 45 carries, an average of 4.9 yards per rush. The Wildcats held Oregon to 35 points, its second-lowest point total on the season (although that K-State defense possessed more speed than the 2014 unit).

In 2012, Baylor ran for 342 yards and averaged 7 yards per rush in a 52-24 victory over K-State. Baylor quarterback Nick Florence only ran for 47 yards, but he presented a threat to pass and run, and as a result, the Wildcats struggled.

Baylor rolled into Manhattan last season averaging more than 300 rushing yards per game and more than 8 yards per carry. The Bears finished the season ranked 13^th nationally with 260 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per rush. Against K-State, Baylor ran the ball 37 times for 114 yards, an average of only 3.1 yards per carry. The Wildcats limited the Bears to 35 points, their third-lowest point total on the season. However, it should be noted that Baylor’s offensive style was different than Oregon and Auburn’s attack. Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty isn’t near the threat to keep the ball and run it in the zone-read option game. He rushed for only 204 yards last season and averaged 2.1 yards per rush. Therefore, K-State was able to key in on the running back, something they won’t be able to do against Auburn.

Oklahoma ran its zone-read option repeatedly against K-State, coupled with its power running game last year, and the Sooners dominated the Wildcats upfront. Trevor Knight, a dual-threat quarterback, ran for 82 yards on 14 carries. In total, Oklahoma ran for 301 yards and averaged 5.8 yards per carry. K-State gave up a season-high 41 points that day.

Just because a team comes into a game with staggering offensive numbers doesn’t mean the Wildcats don’t stand a chance to slow them down. They’ve proven they can do it. But they’ve also struggled in other instances. If K-State could hold Auburn to 35 points like it did against Baylor and Oregon, I think you’d take it and hope your offense can find a way to score enough against a defense that certainly isn’t the Tigers’ strength. The disconcerting fact is K-State’s defense has had some trouble with dual-threat quarterbacks in the past, a challenge Marshall will present against the Wildcats.

Auburn, just like K-State, gives the quarterback the option to run or pass on many of its plays, which makes it incredibly difficult to defend. The Wildcats can’t key in on any one player, because someone else will then burn them. In the game against Alabama last season, the Tigers tied the game on a play where Marshall sucked the defense into thinking he was going to run and then threw it out to a wide-open receiver for a touchdown. The Tigers run the pop pass similar to K-State. The Wildcats will likely have a good idea on how they want to defend the play since they go up against it in practice weekly. And the same could be said for Auburn’s defense against K-State’s offense.

Marshall has the capability to make defenses pay with his arm. He has one of the strongest arms in all of college football. His decision-making has been called into question in the past, as he threw 20 interceptions during his sophomore season at Garden City Community College. However, he only threw six interceptions last season at Auburn and has yet to throw one in 25 attempts this season.

The Tigers’ passing game often results in big plays as teams stack up to stop the run. Auburn ranked 17^th nationally with 14 yards per completion in 2013 (K-State ranked No. 8 with 14.8 yards per completion.) Sammie Coates is the Tigers’ biggest weapon at receiver. The 6-foot-2 junior ranked third nationally last season with 21.5 yards per reception (42 catches for 902 yards) while hauling in seven touchdown passes. Coates, who only caught one ball for 13 yards in Auburn’s season opener against Arkansas, missed the Tigers’ game against San Jose State on Sept. 6 due to a left leg injury. However, he is expected to play this Thursday.

D’haquille Williams, a junior college transfer who is in his first year in the program, currently leads Auburn with 13 catches for 214 yards while Melvin Ray has four catches for 107 yards, averaging 26.8 yards per reception. This is an experienced receiving group. The Tigers return their top four receivers and their tight end, and overall, return 83 percent of the total yards caught through the air in 2013 while adding a talented weapon in Williams.

The Tigers have a talented offensive line. Center Reese Dismukes leads the unit with 39 career starts. The 2013 all-SEC First-Team lineman is a preseason Second-Team All-American. Chad Slade provides stability at left guard, where he has started 37 games in his career. However, starting left tackle Shon Coleman, a 6-6, 310-pound sophomore, is a first-year starter. He served as the backup to Greg Robinson, who was an All-American and first-round draft pick, last season. Avery Young, a 6-6, 315-pound sophomore, has 12 career starts, while right tackle Patrick Miller, a 6-6, 290-pound junior, has 14 starts under his belt.

The Road Factor

Thursday will mark Auburn’s first road game of the season, and you never know how a team will react on the road for the first time. K-State’s crowd will be amped up. One thing Auburn has going for it is its hurry-up offense, which often reduces the significance of the crowd noise and leaves the fans with less time to catch their breath between snaps.

Auburn only played four road games last season. The Tigers lost their first road matchup, a 35-21 defeat at LSU. They defeated Texas A&M 45-41 in College Station, then defeated Arkansas 35-17 in Fayetteville and beat Tennessee 55-23 in Knoxville. However, LSU and A&M were the Tigers’ only tough road games. They lost one, and barely came away with a win in the other. Their other two road contests were against a 5-7 Tennessee team and an Arkansas team that failed to win an SEC game in 2013.

While this really isn’t a factor as teams change year in and year out, I still thought I’d note that the Tigers haven’t won a non-conference road game since 1997. They are 0-5 in true road games in non-conference play and 0-1 in regular-season neutral-site games over the last 17 years. Their last win was a 28-17 victory at Virginia in 1997.

Auburn’s last six regular-season road/neutral-site games

2012: 26-19 loss to Clemson in Atlanta (neutral-site game)

2011: 38-24 loss at Clemson

2008: 34-17 loss at West Virginia

2003: 17-3 loss at Georgia Tech

2002: 24-17 loss at USC

2001: 31-14 loss at Syracuse