Recapping Baylor and Looking Ahead to the Rest of 2015
By Cole Manbeck
Hope you’re ready to digest some numbers. If not, this blog might give you a headache. We will start by breaking down the Baylor game. We will then spend the remainder of this blog looking ahead to the final four games of Kansas State’s regular-season schedule and analyzing the Wildcats’ chances of winning at least three of the final four games to qualify for a bowl.
Without further ado, let’s dive into the 31-24 loss to Baylor. This has been a season of close calls, and Thursday night was no different. The Wildcats did nearly everything right to put themselves in a position to win, just like the narrow loss to TCU. But on this night, they squandered too many opportunities. K-State had four drives inside the Baylor 50-yard line that combined for 3 points. Breaking it down in more detail, three of those drives were inside the Baylor 30-yard line and resulted in just 3 total points.
K-State turned the ball over at the Baylor 22 in the second quarter. Late in the first half, K-State had first down from the Baylor 30, only to have back-to-back penalties push K-State to a first-and-25, costing the Wildcats a shot at points. The Wildcats had a drive stall out at the Baylor 19 that resulted in a field goal, and had another drive halt at the Baylor 45, resulting in a punt. It’s remarkable that the Wildcats – squandering these opportunities, as well as losing the turnover battle three to zero – only lost by 7.
K-State stayed in this game with its run offense and run defense. The Wildcats rushed for 258 yards on 48 carries against the Bears. That’s the most rushing yards Baylor has allowed in a game since K-State rushed for in 327 yards in 2013, a game Baylor won 35-25 in Manhattan. The Wildcats rode Daniel Sams’ legs that day, much like they did with Joe Hubener on Thursday. In that contest, K-State possessed the ball for more than 39 minutes. On Thursday, the Wildcats possessed it for more than 38 minutes.
K-State rushed for 5.4 yards per carry on Thursday. No team had averaged better than 4.4 yards per rush in a game against the Bears, which came into Thursday night allowing 3.5 yards per rush this season. K-State’s 5.4 yard-per-carry average was the most Baylor’s defense has allowed in a game since it allowed 5.8 yards per rush against Central Florida in the Fiesta Bowl two seasons ago.
On the defensive side of the ball, K-State held Baylor to 103 yards rushing on 34 carries, an average of just 3 yards per rush. The Bears entered the game leading the country in yards per carry and had rushed for 5.6 yards per rush or more in every game prior to Thursday night. Heading into the K-State game, Baylor’s season low for rushing yards in a game was 276.
K-State forced Baylor to punt four times, tying for the second-most punts the Bears have had in a game this season. Those are the positives. The negatives are that K-State’s secondary, which ranks 109th out of 128 teams in pass efficiency defense and 106th in yards per pass attempt, struggled once again, allowing Baylor to throw for 419 yards.
The glaring issue for this defense is its inability to force turnovers. The Wildcats have just seven takeaways on the season, tied with three other teams for the lowest mark in the entire country. K-State has recorded just three interceptions on the season – all three coming from its linebackers. Not one member of K-State’s secondary has an interception through eight games. That cannot continue.
On the other side of the ball, K-State has been intercepted on 8.7 percent of its passing attempts over its last three games. Only one team in the country – Maryland – has thrown interceptions at a higher frequency during that time frame. On the season, K-State has been picked off on 4.6 percent of its passing attempts, a mark that ranks 115th out of 128 FBS teams. Easier said than done, but the Wildcats need to start taking better care of the football while forcing the issue on defense and causing the opponents to make some mistakes.
Give K-State credit. It has played Oklahoma State and Baylor closer than any other team this season. And The Wildcats narrowly lost to TCU. The Wildcats have a formula that has kept them competitive against the top competition. There’s something to be said about a team giving itself a chance to win. But winning is what matters, and K-State continues to struggle to get over the hump in close games. Since 2013, the Wildcats have a 5-10 record in games decided by 10 points or less. In addition, the Wildcats are 2-12 in their last 14 games against teams ranked in the top 25.
The good news is K-State won’t see another top-25 team the rest of the season. The Wildcats’ next four opponents are a combined 5-19 in Big 12 play and 12-24 overall. Even better news: since 2011, K-State is a combined 15-0 against Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas and West Virginia. The following two tables break down how K-State’s final four opponents rank nationally on defense and offense. As you can see, if the Wildcats utilize the same game plan they had against Baylor in the final one-third of the season, they could have a lot of success in the ground game.
Defensive rankings of K-State’s next four opponents. The number in parentheses is the national ranking of each team in that statistical category. There are 128 FBS teams.
| Texas Tech | Iowa State | KU | West Virginia | |
| Yards per rush | 5.7 (123rd) | 5.2 (108th) | 5.8 (124th) | 4.6 (78th) |
| Rushing yards per game | 269 (124th) | 198 (95th) | 263 (122nd) | 189 (89th) |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.5 (114th) | 9.5 (125th) | 8.3 (108th) | 7.3 (71st) |
| Passer rating | 151 (108th) | 156 (116th) | 174 (126th) | 127 (57th) |
| Yards per play | 6.8 (119th) | 6.5 (116th) | 7.2 (127th) | 5.6 (75th) |
| Sack percentage | 3.5% (118th) | 5.5% (73rd) | 5.7% (65th) | 5.6% (68th) |
| Points per play | .513 (113th) | .476 (106th) | .595 (125th) | .392 (72nd) |
| Points per game | 42 (120th) | 35 (102nd) | 49.4 (128th) | 30 (82nd) |
Offensive rankings of K-State’s next four opponents. The number in parentheses is the national ranking of each team in that statistical category. There are 128 FBS teams.
| Texas Tech | Iowa State | KU | West Virginia | |
| Yards per rush | 5.4 (10th) | 4.5 (56th) | 2.6 (127th) | 4.5 (50th) |
| Rushing yards per game | 191 (39th) | 191 (38th) | 96 (123rd) | 227 (13th) |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.2 (28th) | 6.4 (96th) | 6.0 (105th) | 6.9 (72nd) |
| Passer rating | 148 (24th) | 118 (93rd) | 108 (104th) | 120 (88th) |
| Yards per play | 6.9 (7th) | 5.1 (83rd) | 4.1 (120th) | 5.3 (66th) |
| Sack percentage | 3.4% (16th) | 8% (104th) | 8.3% (108th) | 7.9 (101st) |
| Points per play | .52 (15th) | .29 (104th) | .18 (125th) | .36 (74th) |
| Points per game | 44 (6th) | 24.6 (83rd) | 14.2 (122nd) | 31.1 (45th) |
The Big 12 has five of the top six scoring offenses in the entire country against FBS competition. The Wildcats have faced four of them. Only one more dynamic offense remains and that’s the Red Raiders, K-State’s opponent this Saturday. Tech is averaging 44 points per game against FBS opponents, ranking sixth nationally. Each team is different, but the Wildcats have had no problems with the Red Raiders since the departure of Mike Leach.
Since 2011, K-State is 4-0 vs. Tech, defeating it by an average margin of 48-24. In the past four contests, K-State has averaged 230 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per rush against the Red Raiders. The Wildcats are 62-of-87 passing (71 percent) for 745 yards and 8.6 yards per pass attempt to go along with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Wildcats have averaged 6.3 yards per offensive play in their last four meetings with Tech.
While I am a big fan of Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes, history says the Wildcats’ secondary will make its first interception of the season this Saturday. K-State has intercepted a Tech quarterback at least once in each of the last four meetings. Since 2011, Red Raider quarterbacks have thrown for six touchdowns and 10 interceptions against K-State.
A big key for the K-State defense this Saturday will be making Tech one dimensional, much like it did Baylor (except defending the pass a little better against the Red Raiders would help). Tech is averaging 5.4 yards per carry against FBS competition, the 10th-best mark in the country. The Red Raiders are averaging 191 yards per game on the ground. They are much more balanced offensively this season. And Mahomes is one of the most mobile quarterbacks Tech has had in more than a decade. He has an ability to run the football and is also very good at extending plays in the passing game. K-State has held Tech to 3.6 yards per carry and 95 rushing yards per game in its previous four meetings. If it can do something similar on Saturday, the Wildcats will have a good shot to win.
The other keys to this game are noted in the above charts. K-State must run the football and own time of possession if it is going to win this game. Tech is pitiful at stopping the run and has been that way for several years. The Wildcats should be able to line up and pound the ball down the Red Raiders’ throats. When K-State played in Lubbock in 2013, the Wildcats won the game 49-26 and threw the ball just 11 times for 76 yards while running for 291 yards on 45 carries. That should be the game plan this Saturday – except throwing the ball 11 times might be too many attempts. This Tech defense is allowing 5.7 yards per carry against FBS competition, ranking 123rd out of 128 FBS teams. Tech is allowing 269 yards per game on the ground against FBS teams, ranking 124th nationally. It’s not like the Red Raiders are good at defending the pass. Really, they’re bad all around on defense. One thing that should cure the Wildcats’ offensive woes is the defenses they will be facing the next few weeks.
The only thing Tech does well on the defensive side of the football is forcing turnovers. The Red Raiders know they’re unlikely to stop you otherwise, so they’ll take risks. They have forced 20 turnovers this season, tied for the 10th-most in the country. The Wildcats must protect the football. Tech is explosive on offense. However, if K-State wins the turnover battle and runs the ball like it did against Baylor, I think it will come away with a win. If the Wildcats can get out of Lubbock with a victory, they’re likely destined for a bowl. A win at Tech, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Wildcats reel off four straight victories to end the regular season.
