K-State Heads to Ames for First Road Test

September 4, 2014 johnkurtz

By Cole Manbeck

Bill Snyder hasn’t lost to Iowa State since his return to coaching in 2009, and don’t look for that to change on Saturday. There are a few reasons for concern for Kansas State going into this matchup, but there are significantly more reasons to be optimistic. Let’s start with the bad and end with the good.

Reasons for Concern:

Iowa State lost 34-14 to North Dakota State last Saturday, but the Cyclones did lead 14-0 at one point. Iowa State ran for 63 yards on its first nine carries of the game, an average of 7 yards per rush. Then starting center Tom Farniok left the game with an MCL injury. The senior missed the final 42 offensive plays of the game. Farniok is far and away the Cyclones’ best offensive lineman and the leader of the unit. Once he left the field, the Cyclones ran for 39 yards on 17 carries, an average of 2.3 yards per rush. Iowa State had 103 yards of offense on 15 plays with Farniok on the field, an average of 6.9 yards per play. In the final 42 plays from scrimmage without him, Iowa State had 150 yards of offense, an average of 3.6 yards per play. Head coach Paul Rhoads said Farniok will play against K-State, so Iowa State will have its best lineman back and will be better equipped to run the football.

Iowa State is thin in depth and young at the safety position. Kamari Cotton-Moya, the Cyclones starting free safety, was ejected for targeting in the first half of Saturday’s game, leaving Iowa State in a precarious position in the secondary. Cotton-Moya will return for this Saturday’s game, giving Iowa State a little bit of a boost.

The Cyclones lost their top playmaker, Quenton Bundrage, to an ACL injury against North Dakota State. Bundrage is out for the season, and it’s certainly a blow for Iowa State. But the receiver position is the team’s deepest position group. Iowa State was without the services of receivers D’Vario Montgomery and Tad Ecby last weekend, as both were suspended for the season opener for a violation of team rules. They will both play against K-State. Iowa State is big at the receiver position, as Montgomery stands at 6-foot-5, 219 pounds, while true freshman Allen Lazard, Iowa State’s most heralded recruit, is 6-5, 221 pounds. In addition, Iowa State has E.J. Bibbs, who is arguably the top tight end in the Big 12, so K-State’s relatively inexperienced secondary will be tested.

Iowa State quarterback Sam Richardson has some mobility. He led the team with 58 yards rushing on 15 carries against the Bison. K-State struggled to keep containment on a couple of pass-rush situations against Stephen F. Austin, allowing an 18-yard QB scramble and a 32-yard scramble. It will be important for K-State’s defensive linemen to maintain their lanes when rushing the QB, and for the linebackers and safeties to take better pursuit angles than they did against the Lumberjacks.

This is K-State’s first road game of the season, and there are always reasons to be nervous about a road game, particularly the first one of the year. Just like most teams in the country, the Wildcats are breaking in several new guys who have never played key snaps in a Big 12 road game, including two new players on the right side of the offensive line. It will be interesting to see how the crowd noise affects them. K-State’s last trip to Ames ended with the Wildcats narrowly escaping with a 27-21 victory. K-State, ranked No. 6 in the country at the time, found itself needing a defensive stop late in the fourth quarter to secure the win. Iowa State fans are loyal and will once again be fired up and Ames certainly isn’t an easy place to play. Prior to the Wildcats’ 41-7 victory last season, the previous four games between these two squads was decided by an average of 5.25 points per game.

You might have noticed that I didn’t list many tactical advantages for Iowa State, and that’s because there aren’t many. This blog would go on way too long if I listed all of the favorable situations for K-State, so I will just hit on a few key points.

Reasons for Optimism

Iowa State had the worst defense in the Big 12 in 2013. They ranked last in the conference in rushing defense, allowing 5.35 yards per carry and 224 yards per game on the ground. They also ranked last in the conference in total defense, allowing 463 yards per game. And this year’s unit might be even worse. Iowa State allowed North Dakota State to run for 302 yards. The Bison averaged 6.9 yards per rush. Going into this season, the Cyclones had concern about their lack of depth and talent along the defensive line. Those concerns became a reality last weekend. North Dakota State was breaking in four new starters along the offensive line and still dominated the Cyclones at the line of scrimmage. Iowa State held the Bison to just 12 yards rushing on their first eight carries. However, North Dakota State rushed for 290 yards over the final three quarters, averaging 8 yards per carry.

K-State has three offensive linemen with all-conference ability in Cody Whitehair, B.J. Finney and Boston Stiverson. I expect the Wildcats to be able to wear down the Cyclones upfront. The Wildcats ran for 240 yards and averaged 4.7 yards per rush against Stephen F. Austin. And while the Lumberjacks aren’t a good defensive team, any concern I had about K-State’s running backs heading into that game were alleviated. DeMarcus Robinson, Charles Jones and Jarvis Leverett all looked good, and freshman Judah Jones looked explosive when he touched the ball.

That brings us to the passing game. As I mentioned, Iowa State is very young at safety. The Cyclones start a freshman at free safety and a sophomore at strong safety. Nigel Tribune is Iowa State’s most talented player in the secondary. But he’s a sophomore. If K-State can establish the running game, which they should have no problem doing, that will set up the play-action pass, meaning Tyler Lockett and Jake Waters could have some fun. If Iowa State decides to completely commit to taking away the run, K-State will likely use the passing game to set up the run. If the Cyclones want to play balanced on defense, then the numbers tell us K-State should have little trouble running the football. Either way, things don’t stack up well for Iowa State’s defense against K-State’s offense.

The Wildcats look like a team that could be strong against the run once again in 2014, as they only allowed a net of 69 yards rushing to Stephen F. Austin. K-State recorded three sacks, but keep in mind that the Lumberjacks only allowed eight sacks all of last season, ranking fifth in the entire FCS. K-State needs to make Richardson beat it with his arm rather than his legs. If they can contain him on scramble situations, the Wildcats should be in good shape.

Without Bundrage, the Cyclones lack their proven big-play threat at receiver. They’re big at the receiver position, but they don’t have a ton of experience. Against North Dakota State, Richardson completed 20 of his 31 passes for 151 yards. He averaged only 7.6 yards per completion. However, one of those completions was a 48-yard pass. If you take away that completion, he averaged only 5.4 yards per completion. And in the second half, Richardson averaged just 3.4 yards per completion (nine completions for 31 yards). So this isn’t a home-run type of offense K-State is facing. Bibbs is the Cyclones’ best offensive player, so K-State’s safety play against the tight end will be key.

Overall, this is a game K-State should certainly win. As long as the Wildcats protect the football and don’t turn it over, they will win. I suspect this will be close early, but the Wildcats will eventually pull away with a 14-17 point victory.